Projects
Interactive/LLM agents · markets · insider trading
The Insider Market
I built a simulated oil futures market and staffed it with LLM traders. In some markets one of them is a secret insider who learns each market-moving event two days early. This page lets you open any run and watch what happened: the price against the hidden fair value, who made and lost money, and, for the featured runs, every agent's own scratch notes, day by day.
74% → 44%
How often the insider trades on the tip, when the same tip is called an analyst forecast vs. illegal inside information
100
Matched market runs (a twin control for every insider market, identical except for the insider)
≈0
Pre-announcement drift in control markets before surprise events (the placebo check the design has to pass)
60%
Of the time a simple surveillance screen flags the real insider, though it also flags innocents
Explore the runs
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Notes are the agents' own scratchpads, written as they traded. They are what the agent chose to record, not a verified account of its reasoning. The fair value is known to the simulation but never shown to the agents; they infer it from the news.